- Newcastle form: Newcastle have won one of their last five matches (W1, D1, L3).
- Liverpool form: Liverpool have won two of their last five games (W2, D1, L2).
- Head-to-head: Liverpool have won three of the last five head-to-head matchups (W3, D1, L1).
Lively clash expected at St James’ Park
Liverpool are favored to win at Newcastle but it might be a very close game, so we're taking the Reds to nick it rather than support a Magpies upset in Sunday's early Premier League game.
Liverpool have lost their last two matches after Liverpool beat Wrexham 1-0, then lost 2-4 to Leeds United and 2-3 to AS Monaco, but the Reds have a superior head-to-head record against Newcastle in recent times and can secure the spoils here. Liverpool have won three of the past five meetings between these two sides (W3, D1, L1) and the last clash, in the 2025/2026 Premier League, finished 4-1 to Liverpool.
Newcastle have failed to win either of their previous two games against Liverpool and that's a pressure on them to deliver on Sunday. The Magpies have three wins, three draws and four defeats in their last ten games, so even though it's not a bad form line, it's a little patchy to suggest they can go on a run to beat Liverpool.
Liverpool have a sharper edge in the final third
Newcastle's system
Matthias Jaissle is installing a Red-Bull-influenced high-intensity counter-press system on his Newcastle team, with flexible shapes, quick transitions and wide movements. Harvey Barnes has been the Magpies' sharp edge, scoring two of Newcastle's six goals across their last five, but there are still a few loose ends that need tying up before their system becomes a real force.
Liverpool's pressing and attack
Liverpool's pressing style is frenetic and even faster going forward, which could see the midfield turnovers decide this game. Andoni Iraola's team has been fantastic in the attacking third with quick vertical movements and some good wide movements. The manager also isn't afraid to make subs to keep the tempo high and Liverpool's bench has been buzzing for some time now.
Reds still look the best of these two teams
Newcastle have been relatively solid at home with two wins, one draw and a loss but they have shipped five goals in their four games at St James' Park, while Liverpool have lost two of their three away games in all competitions and conceded eight goals (average 2.67).
Liverpool's recent form is better than Newcastle's but it's not perfect so there is a chance here for the hosts to get a result.
- The draw at 3.9 is a big price but we're going for the Reds to eke out a win here as they have the superior head-to-head, quality and matchup for this matchup.
- Over 2.5 goals at 1.48 is a good price on this game, especially given Liverpool's away defensive struggles of late, while Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.44 is also excellent value given Newcastle's home stats.
