- Team form: Atletico de Rafaela have won just one of their eight Primera Nacional 2026 away matches, scoring only four goals.
- Defensive record: Nueva Chicago have conceded six goals in eight home Primera Nacional 2026 outings, an average of 0.75 per game.
Defensive discipline can rule the day
Nueva Chicago should edge out Atletico de Rafaela at Mataderos in a game that is likely to be dominated by the defense on Saturday. The odds of 2.49 about the home side look about right with Rafaela in mixed form, but the visitors are solid enough to keep it close.
Nueva Chicago sits 18th in Primera Nacional 2026 with 21 points from 15 games and needs to climb the table in the second half of the campaign. Atletico de Rafaela are in ninth spot with 26 points from 17 matches and look to have accomplished a solid, if unspectacular, campaign so far.
The hosts have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five, but their most recent two results have been a 2-0 home win over Chacarita Juniors and a 1-1 home draw against Temperley. The visitors are in equally mixed form with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five.
Tactical battle to unfold at Mataderos
Rafaela's setup:
Ivan Juarez has been pragmatic since taking over at Rafaela in August 2024 and he has made the Crema very hard to break down. They play a 4-4-2 formation, which can become very compact when the ball is in the opposition half and they can be very dangerous on the counter-attack, although they have only scored four times on the road this term.
Martiniano Moreno is Rafaela's main threat, with six goals in 16 Primera Nacional 2026 matches, and his ability to spot the space and find the right finish will be key to whether they can nick this game.
Chicago's approach:
German Lanaro, who took charge of Nueva Chicago in May 2026, has brought some more verticality to the hosts' game and they will press from the front and attack down the wings. Sebastian Cocimano is their main goal threat, with five goals in 14 matches this term, and they will look to his movement and finishing skills to unlock the more compact sides.
Home side to eke out a win
The pressing style of the home team against the compact nature of Rafaela's defensive set-up should lead to a chess match, where clear-cut chances are likely to be few and far between.
That suggests there is a high chance that one of them can keep a clean sheet and the odds of Both Teams to Score – No at 1.51 and Total Score Under 2.5 at 1.29 back up our view that this is going to be tight and tense.
- Nueva Chicago have won both of the last two head-to-head contests in Primera Nacional and had the better of Atletico de Rafaela in a 5-1 away victory last year.
- Rafaela have failed to win in their last three away games.
- Chicago are undefeated in seven of eight at home (two wins, five draws, one defeat).
