- Recent result: Pachuca won the two-legged Apertura 2022 final but have a 1-0 aggregate lead following a gritty win in Toluca last week.
- League standing: Pachuca finished fourth in the Clausura 2026 regular season, one point ahead of 5th-placed Toluca, who have had to juggle league and CONCACAF Champions Cup commitments this year.
Pachuca are in the driving seat
Pachuca CF will look to hold their one-goal lead from the first leg as they return to Estadio Hidalgo to face Deportivo Toluca FC in the second leg of their Clausura 2026 quarter-final on Sunday. The Tuzos rode their momentous 1-0 first-leg win to secure a home field advantage and it is difficult to see the hosts progressing to the next round if they concede early on in this game.
Toluca are the slight favorites to win on the day at 2.06, while Pachuca are 3.25 and we think their aggregate lead gives them the edge to progress into the semifinals if they can avoid conceding early on in the game. Pachuca’s talisman Enner Valencia has been in fantastic form in the knockout stages of the Clausura 2026, scoring the winner in Toluca and being generally reliable for goals under pressure.
Salomón Rondón has been an excellent attacking outlet for Pachuca during the season, but has missed some knockout ties through suspension - leaving Valencia as the talisman for Esteban Solari’s side.
Two very different teams
Pachuca
Pachuca are a team built on the ability to press high and win the ball back in the final third, while their wing-backs provide width and speed on the counter-attack. Elías Montiel is the creative hub for the Tuzos who finished fourth in the regular season after a strong finish to the campaign.
Toluca
Toluca are a far more pragmatic side and will set up in numbers to block Pachuca’s attacks before trying to break with the speed of their forwards. In Paulinho, they have their top scorer in the Liga MX Clausura 2026 and CONCACAF Champions Cup, but he has been Toluca’s main creative outlet and carry of their attacking burden.
Antonio Mohamed has a squad that knows how to grind out results and he has guided the Chorizeros to recent league glory, but Pachuca will provide a different tactical test and Alexis Vega and Jesús Angulo face injury and selection doubts for this crucial tie.
- Pachuca are a team built on the ability to press high and win the ball back in the final third, while their wing-backs provide width and speed on the counter-attack.
- Toluca are a far more pragmatic side and will set up in numbers to block Pachuca’s attacks before trying to break with the speed of their forwards.
- Pachuca will have the mental advantage of the victory in the first leg and Toluca’s selection problems are a major headache for Mohamed.
Tuzos to progress
Toluca have had an inconsistent season and recent fixture congestion has led to rotation and fatigue for the squad. The Tuzos took the lead in the first leg and won the game after a decisive strike, so we see no value in supporting the visitors this weekend, even though they will need to come out chasing the win.
The match will be tense and tactical with Pachuca trying to press high and Toluca looking to punish them in transition or when the hosts lose their shape in possession. Pachuca will have the mental advantage of the victory in the first leg and Toluca’s selection problems are a major headache for Mohamed.
Both teams to score - Yes is priced up at 1.5 and is our selection for this game because of Toluca’s need to chase it and Pachuca’s high-pressing game.
