- Team form: Minnesota United are winless in 5 matches and coming off a 2 game losing streak.
- Home form: Real Salt Lake are unbeaten in 4 home matches in all competitions (4 wins), conceding just twice.
- Tactical note: RSL's 4-2-3-1 formation is fluid enough to morph into a 3-2-4-1 possession system to control the game.
Don’t look at Minnesota’s price for a second
Minnesota United have just been poor for some time now, W1 D4 L5 in their last 10 across all competitions. They are coming into Sunday's away game against Real Salt Lake having just lost their last 2 games, a 2-0 defeat at home to Mexican side FC Juarez, followed by a 0-0 draw with Club Tigres de la UANL in the CONCACAF League, which they lost in a penalty shoot-out. Adi Hütter's men are inconsistent in all departments, conceding 1.75 goals per away game across all competitions (W1 L3).
It's hard to see Minnesota having enough of a bite to challenge Real Salt Lake here, who are priced 1.81, whilst the Loons are priced at 3.85 and the draw at 3.9. The market has it just about right here, as there is a big difference in how these two teams play and this fixture is more of a chess match than the odds imply.
Real Salt Lake have a real bite
Recent form
RSL have won their opening 4 home games across all competitions, conceding just 2 goals in the process. It's been a mixed bag in terms of results lately for the home side (W1 D1 L3 in their last 5), but the last 2 have been telling results, a gutsy 1-1 draw away to Mexican outfit Club Tigres de la UANL and a 4-0 home victory against CF Atlante, an RSL B-team basically, which is more like it for Pablo Mastroeni's men.
Tactics
- RSL's system is built around control and with home-field advantage, this game should be played at RSL's pace.
- Mastroeni's side can play a 4-2-3-1, but can also change into a 3-2-4-1 when in possession, creating overloads in the centre of the field with plenty of forward progression.
Minnesota have more flexibility
Mastroeni has been in charge since August 2021 and he has created a team with a real identity, which will always want the ball and dominate the game, especially at home, where they have the ability to be confident bullies.
Minnesota have more variety in their game, they can play with a back-three and wingbacks, they can flood the middle, they have two players who can create a good deal of danger from advanced positions and when they're on they can be a very good team. However, their recent results suggest they are not clicking at the moment.
The Loons may have a sting
Real Salt Lake are the clear favourites for this game for all the right reasons and an RSL win is the most likely outcome, but the price is too short to be too involved. A BTTS & over 2.5 goals bet at 1.53 and 1.57, respectively, looks like the best way to get value from this matchup.
RSL have been much much better at the back recently, but I think Minnesota's compact shape should make this tighter than the betting odds suggest, although RSL's selective pressing after loss should see Minnesota pinned back for large periods of this one. Sergi Solans is RSL's danger man, he's the league's top-scorer with 7 and he's notched 4 goals in their last 5 matches, so there's a good chance that he will be the one to punish Minnesota if RSL click.
