- Home advantage: A full house at Strawberry Arena can make a huge difference for Sweden in this World Cup play-off final.
- Opposition threat: Poland are a well-drilled team that can frustrate Sweden, but Robert Lewandowski’s leadership and finishing can change a game.
- Hosts' form: The hosts are in good form, largely thanks to Viktor Gyökeres’ goals, but they are still a work in progress under Graham Potter.
Sweden and Poland to share the spoils
Momentum and recent form
Sweden and Poland meet in a winner-takes-all UEFA World Cup 2026 playoff final at Strawberry Arena this Tuesday, with the victor earning a direct place in the North American jamboree.
There is big pressure on both sides, but the hosts have momentum after Viktor Gyökeres’ hat-trick put them past Ukraine 3 - 1 in the semi-final.
Tactics and concerns
The Swedes have been a work in progress under coach Graham Potter this year, but their fluid, possession-based system of football and advanced full-backs is now well established.
Potter’s ability to tweak formations and personnel during games has made them more unpredictable, but injuries to Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski have limited their forward creativity.
Sweden are reliant on transitions and Gyökeres’ goal-scoring prowess at the moment, but that formula looks good enough to defeat the Poles.
Lewandowski can win the day for the Poles
Jan Urban’s side are not quite right up front and that’s why they finished second behind the Netherlands in the qualification group, although they are better now that Lewandowski has returned to the fold.
- Piotr Zieliński is the creative heartbeat of this side and his ability to dictate the game’s rhythm and connect the midfield with the forwards is key to Poland’s play.
- Urban has mixed the old and the new well, but Poland’s qualifying campaign was not consistent enough for a team with such high standards.
- The Eagles edged the Swedes 2-0 when they last met in a competitive game in World Cup qualifying in March of 2022, but the head-to-head record is too close to call.
Cool contest likely in Solna
Our selection for the match is in the ‘Both teams to score - No’ market at 1.8 because this game will probably be cagey and the conditions - cool and cloudy in Solna - will be good for organized, disciplined soccer.
Sweden are the favorites at 2.0 with the bookmakers, while Poland are as big as 3.7 and the draw 3.3, so home advantage is clearly making the Blues favorites for this play-off.
But Urban’s players are well-drilled and have a good mix of experience and creativity in the middle of the park, where they will try to control the ball and set the tempo.
And they have some pace in their supporting cast of Milik, Kamiński and Szymański, who can get at the Swedish defense on the counter.
Kristoffer Nordfeldt’s long distribution was a key part of the win over Ukraine and the goalkeeper can be used to stretch Poland's defense here.
But our forecast is for a 1-1 result in 90 minutes, with the winner going to penalties or a late goal as both nations need a World Cup adventure in North America.
Gyökeres’ hat-trick has made him the talk of the play-offs, but the game will be won or lost by the leaders of the lines - Gyökeres for Sweden and Lewandowski for Poland.
