- Ilves Tampere have lost their last two matches - 1-0 away to AC Oulu in the Veikkausliiga and 1-0 to HNK Rijeka in Europe.
- Rijeka have won their last five consecutive matches, establishing a serious momentum heading into this return leg.
- The visitors have been impregnable away from home in all competitions, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and no goals conceded (0.00) in three away games.
Rijeka return should be enough to see off Ilves
Ilves are a big 9.2 to beat the favourites and progress in Finland, and that looks about right when you consider the Croatians' quality, momentum and the fact they are already 1-0 up in the tie. The hosts have been in poor form of late, losing their last two and are a 4.61 draw on Thursday, while Rijeka are 1.39 to win the match outright.
Ilves Tampere have been patchy since Camilo Speranza took over on 6 July 2026, winning four, drawing one and losing five of their ten in all competitions. The hosts do have a good home record in all current competitions, with three wins, no draws and no defeats, but those games have been chaotic with 3.67 total goals on average and 2.00 goals conceded per-match.
Rijeka have been absolutely on fire since Matjaz Kek took over on 7 June 2026, winning seven, drawing two and losing just one of his ten matches in charge. They have won five straight matches ahead of this match, which will inspire confidence throughout the squad.
Rijeka have the control and Ilves have the chaos
Rijeka are a more dynamic and direct 4-3-3 side in comparison to Ilves Tampere. Matjaz Kek has made them more urgent with a higher pressing game and faster, more vertical combination play, while Camilo Speranza's Ilves favour compact midfield triangles, wing-back overloads and a #10 when available, who can unlock the more compact or packed defences.
Rijeka's control and continental savvy should see them through, but Ilves are no pushovers and their game is all about transition. With the visitors ahead on the night, Ilves will need to be at their best in the transitions to get back into it, and that could be a big ask against a quality team with momentum.
The price of 1.75 for both teams to score - no looks tempting as Rijeka will look to control the game and should avoid risk-taking if they get ahead, which we expect them to. The Over 2.5 goals market at 1.7 offers the same sort of returns, but the draw looks like the obvious play given that this should be a low-risk contest. Rijeka have scored 1.33 goals per-match away from home in all of their current competitions and are yet to concede on the road (0.00).
Jardell Kanga has been Ilves' most dangerous player in this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 season, scoring once in five games. HNK Rijeka have been more prolific in front of goal, with Daniel Adu-Adjei their focal point, finishing with one goal in three appearances.
