Atletico de San Luis

vs

Pumas UNAM

Tips, Stats and Odds

Pumas UNAM should win the upcoming match against Atletico de San Luis, but they may not have an easy ride to do so. Raúl Chabrand, the interim head coach of the Red and Whites, has been given the task of steadying the ship following the recent coaching switch and the early signs are not bad.

Pumas will be a tough nut to crack on Saturday, however, and that will be tough to do even if Chabrand can get the team in the right place mentally. Efraín Juárez has instilled a very professional shape on his team, which presses relentlessly, but plays the ball forward quickly and with skill when they win the ball back. Keylor Navas, a veteran leader, provides leadership and makes the odd crucial save at the back, but Pumas are not a defensive side - they like to play at the tempo that suits them and are very dangerous on the counter-attack.

Pumas are fourth in the Clausura with 27 points after 14 rounds and currently hold a comfortable position in the top four, although San Luis, who are 14th with 15 points, desperately need to win to keep their Liguilla hopes alive. The head-to-head record is quite evenly matched over the long-term, but there have been enough goals in their previous Liga MX meetings to get the juices flowing.

A large crowd is anticipated for this fixture and the home fans will demand a good performance from San Luis, who will have a goal against the visitors if João Pedro is on his game. The striker has been in prolific form this season, leading the Clausura scoring charts with 12 goals, and his late penalty at Toluca recently rescued a point and allowed San Luis to continue their recent run of one win, two draws and two defeats.

Chabrand is likely to keep the 4-2-3-1 formation that has served his team well so far, even though there are a couple of defensive fragilities to be addressed. The midfielders have to provide support to the two centre-backs, but they are also required to control the game’s tempo and supply the likes of Sébastien Salles-Lamonge, who provides the creativity and flair to set up the goals for a lone striker like João Pedro.

Pumas, however, are more direct and will press San Luis relentlessly in a bid to play on the break with their wide and central runners. This clash of styles will provide plenty of room for maneuver in the midfield and we like the odds of over 2.5 goals at 1.7, given the fixture history and the attacking quality both teams possess. There is a little extra edge to this fixture, because João Pedro will be determined to add to his Clausura scoring record against a team that should be a little less willing to give him space.

The bookmakers seem to have it right that Pumas should have a slightly better chance of winning on the road than their opponents, but the odds of 2.68 for a Pumas away win and 2.42 for San Luis look a bit too close. Draw odds of 3.5 look fair for this match, which could be a close game if a certain point is needed by either side.

Pumas will want to secure their top-four position while San Luis have an even greater need for the points. We’re just giving the edge to Pumas because they are in the better overall form, have a stronger record in this match and are unbeaten in their last five matches.

Robert Morales and Guillermo Martínez provide good cover for their front two, with Morales scoring in the 3-1 victory over Mazatlán. Juninho, who has scored six Clausura goals, is their biggest goal threat, although he also plays a crucial role from set-pieces.