- Team form: Burnley have averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded at home in the Championship 2026/2027
- Away record: Derby County have averaged 1.00 away goals in the Championship 2026/2027
- Top scorer: Zian Flemming has 2 goals in 2 Championship 2026/2027 matches to lead the Clarets' scoring charts
Tense clash awaits at Turf Moor
The pressure is already flashing red for Burnley and Derby County in the Championship 2026/2027 as the Clarets are 24th with just three points from seven games while the Rams are 22nd with just four.
John Eustace has Derby organised with a narrow 4-4-2-style base and a clear low-block game plan and they can certainly make it a tough game for Burnley at Turf Moor on Saturday. They have been on the receiving end of a few bad breaks and their away form is not great, but could be much worse as they have one win and two losses in three away.
Derby County have lost three straight, including a 3-0 defeat at West Ham United and a pair of disappointing home defeats to West Bromwich Albion (0-1) and Birmingham City (1-2). They drew 1-1 away at Wrexham before the Swansea City game, so the momentum is now going the wrong way.
Burnley’s Flemming is a fox in the box
Team shape and tactics
Burnley, who are still winless at home in the Championship 2026/2027 (D2, L1), could just nick it here if the game is open enough for their attacking players to get some joy. Nicky Hayen has the team keeping the ball well, pressing with purpose and moving the ball and players well in their 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 shapes.
Derby will look to sit back and make it difficult for the hosts, who will be pressing for the win and that should create some space for the visitors to attack.
Key players
Zian Flemming has looked a real threat when he has been played in the channels and allowed to get on the end of chances early on. Bobby Clark is Derby County's sparkplug, having top-scored for the club with two in the Championship 2026/2027, but he has also supplied two assists.
Derby can make a dirty game of it
The odds-on odds for the home team to edge this one are a bit low considering the circumstances of both clubs, so we will take the under 2.5 goals market at 1.95 for this cagey affair.
Both clubs are desperate for a win, but Burnley have more quality in the side and Burnley are early favourites, so we will side with the home side to nick it in what is likely to be a close game between these two clubs from last season.
