- Home form: EC Vitoria have been very strong at home in Serie A 2026, winning seven, drawing one and losing two of their 10 home matches, scoring 1.50 goals per game and conceding 0.70 goals per fixture.
- Away form: EC Bahia have been much more solid than explosive away from home in Serie A 2026, drawing four, winning four and losing three of their 11 away league matches, conceding 1.55 goals per away fixture.
- Head-to-head: The last Ba-Vi matchup in Serie A 2026 finished 1-1 at Bahia's ground and the last five meetings of the pair have been very tight, with Vitoria winning one, Bahia winning two and two draws.
Bahia won’t have it all their own way in Bahia
It is a tight matchup on paper and that's what we expect on the pitch when Bahia visit Vitoria for Sunday's Ba-Vi derby in Serie A 2026. The Leao da Barra have been very tough to beat at home this season, winning seven, drawing one and losing just two of their ten fixtures.
They have scored 15 and conceded just seven in this run, so there is a clear formula for their success and that's to get men behind the ball, compete in the air and hit on the break. Jair Ventura's side are 13th in the table with 26 points from 22 games, while Bahia are 5th with 34 points from 23, so the table suggests they are the better team, but not by a landslide. The visiting Esquadrão de Aço are the league's draw specialists at the moment, coming into this with a run of five straight draws – 0-0 at home to Vasco da Gama and 3-3 at Chapecoense AF last time out.
Vitoria’s home strength gives them a narrow edge
Tactics:
Rogério Ceni's side want the ball, like to control midfield and play passes on the ground, but they have added more steel to that gameplan of late, which may see them get bogged down here. Vitoria have some decent players, but they lack the penetration to break down a side as organised as Bahia, who will be well set up to counter their hosts' attacks.
Odds and prediction:
Vitoria come into this as 2.58 favorites, but Bahia are well worth a wager at 2.64 and the draw is at 3.3, so there is plenty of value in the draw or Bahia double chance market. Another draw, 0-0 or 1-1, looks the most likely result of this derby, as Vitoria have scored 1.0 goal per game against Bahia across the last five head-to-heads, and Bahia have also scored 1.0 goal away from home this term.
The smart bet is under 2.5 goals
A smart bet here is the under 2.5 goals market, which could well be the way to go in a tense derby between two teams that have been involved in some tight and cagey affairs recently.
- Vitoria have one win and four defeats from their last five matches, but they did beat CA Paranaense 4-0 in midweek in the Copa do Brasil to show what they are capable of when things click.
- Rene has been Vitoria's sharp edge during this run, scoring two of their four goals in the last five fixtures, and he gives them a real threat on the counterattack.
- But the main gameplan for this matchup will be a chess match, with Bahia looking to control the midfield and play short passes, and Vitoria looking to get deep and stifle Bahia's attacking flow.
