- Puebla form: Puebla are 9th in the Liga MX 2026/2027 table on 10 points from 6 games.
- Toluca form: Deportivo Toluca FC are 3rd on 13 points from 6 matches.
Toluca have the edge in the stats
Toluca have the statistical edge over Puebla going into Wednesday's Liga MX 2026/2027 clash and look likely to edge out their hosts, although Puebla are tough and capable of making this a close encounter. The Diablos Rojos will arrive at the Estadio Cuahutehmoc in good form after a 0-0 away draw with CF Atlante, a 2-1 away win against Gallos Blancos Queretaro, and a 4-0 home win over FC Juarez.
Toluca have won 2 and drawn 1 of their 3 away games, while Puebla have won 1 and drawn 1 of 2 at home this season. The last meeting between these sides was a 0-0 draw in Puebla for Liga MX 2025/2026, but Toluca will like their chances more for the return match this time around. The stats say it all as the visitors have won 3 and drawn 2 of the last 5 meetings, while Puebla have failed to win any of their last 3 home games against Toluca.
Deportivo should outscore Puebla
Odds and prediction
Toluca are the clear favourites at 1.64, but Puebla at 4.65 and the draw at 4.1 look a little short in the odds, so there is probably only one safe bet for this game. Antonio Mohamed's side have a structure-vs-transition game that should force Puebla to stay disciplined, but should also give Toluca a few more routes to find the net.
Statistics and players
The visitors average 1.33 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded per game away from home in Liga MX 2026/2027, which is a good sign for a tight, efficient road side. La Franja, on the other hand, have averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per home game, which is a sign of a team that is likely to be opened up in the back by the opposition.
Gerardo Espinoza's rebuilding project at the home side has started well in terms of points accumulated, but the way they are playing is too open to be sustainable. Puebla have beaten Pachuca CF 3-2 away and Santos Laguna 3-2 at home, but were thumped 2-0 away by Club America and the Diablos Rojos are a much tougher opponent.
Toluca should win this contest, but Puebla are resilient on their home turf so it will be closer than the odds suggest, so Toluca or draw and under 2.5 goals at 2.4 looks a solid alternative to the Toluca win bet if it gets a little cagey.
- Federico Vinas has been Toluca's main source of goals with 2 in 4 Liga MX 2026/2027 appearances, and 4 in their last 11.
- Eduardo Mustre has been Puebla's most reliable player up top with 3 in 6 Liga MX 2026/2027 matches, and 4 of their last 7 goals.
