- Home form: Qarabag are unbeaten in 4 home games in all competitions (W3, D1), conceding just 1 goal during that run.
- Away form: Twente have failed to win their last 2 away games (D1, L1).
- Recent run: Qarabag have won their last 3 consecutive games in all competitions, including a 2-0 home win over FC Dynamo Kiev and a 3-1 home victory against Shamakhi FK.
Hosts can hold the lead with a little room to spare
Match situation
FK Qarabag took a slender lead into the second-leg of this UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026 tie after a 1-0 win at FC Twente and they look well placed to go a step further when they play out the second-leg at the Tofiq Bakhramov Stadium in Azerbaijan on Thursday.
Qurban Qurbanov's side are unbeaten in 4 at home in all competitions (W3, D1), while they have won their last 3 games in a row. The Atlılar (The Horsemen) have only conceded 1 goal during their 4-match unbeaten home run and they can keep another clean sheet if they maintain their solid, sharp transitions and direct style of play.
Players to watch
Qarabag's home wins over Dynamo Kiev and Shamakhi FK were both accompanied by multiple goals, while Qurban Qurbanov's men can make life difficult for the visiting team. Twente will attempt to keep the game tight and in control, but that won't be easy against Qarabag's sharp passing and running.
- Jaly Mouaddib is Qarabag's leading scorer in the competition with 1 goal in 3 appearances, but Qarabag's most consistent marksman is Oleksii Kashchuk with 2 goals in their last 5.
Twente need to go for it
FC Twente are 1.95 to take the win in this game and they certainly will travel to Baku as favourites to do so. John van den Brom has his men organised in a 4-2-3-1, where they circulate the ball patiently, pass vertically when the opportunity arises and press the opposition with selection and precision.
De Tukkers have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their 5 competitive away matches, so the trip to Azerbaijan may be a tricky proposition for the Dutch side. They are averaging a solid 1.80 goals per game on the road, scoring 9 goals in total, which should help them get into this game.
Marko Pjaca is Twente's most dangerous forward, scoring 3 goals in 3 matches in the UEFA Conference League Qualification 2026. Sondre Oerjasaeter is also having a decent campaign from wide and deeper areas, with 4 assists in his last 5 matches, so the Dutch team have a real creative spark to hurt the home side with.
Open, end-to-end affair awaits the fans
Both teams to score at 1.6 and over 2.5 goals at 1.62 point to a relatively open game at the Tofiq Bakhramov Stadium as the visitors will need to chase the game. Twente have the players to hurt Qarabag on the counter-attack, but the hosts have the pace and the direct nature to put their opponents under real pressure at the back.
I'm backing Twente to give this a real chance with a 2-1 away win at 1.95, but Qarabag are more than capable of holding the lead in a nervy game.
