- Defense: Toronto FC have conceded 18 goals in 11 away league games this season
- Home form: Saint Louis City have won two and drawn one of their last three home games
- Key player form: Joshua Sargent has scored four of Toronto's nine goals in their last five games
Toronto to test the hosts
Match context
This should be a home game for Saint Louis City SC in MLS 2026, but Toronto FC's style of play should ensure a close game if the home team don't get the job done early.
Toronto's style
The Reds' ability to mix a back four and back three and stay compact while being dangerous in transition means that Robin Fraser's side are rarely out of any game. They can be out-played, out-possessed and out-tackled, but they rarely get outscored.
Player form
Toronto, who arrive at Energizer Park, USA on Sunday having won two, drawn two and lost one in their last five, have been helped in the goals department by the excellent form of Joshua Sargent recently. The ex-Werder Bremen man has four goals in his last five matches, but Daniel Salloi, the Reds' leading scorer with seven MLS 2026 goals, will be well-supported with three assists in those games.
Saint Louis City can win
Toronto's away form has been mixed recently, winning one and losing one of their last two. Saint Louis City, who won the only prior meeting 1-0 away in MLS 2023, ought to know how to nick this one.
Yoann Damet has made them a little more balanced and ball-progressive, but they still play the Saint Louis style of selective pressing and vertical tempo. That should cause the Toronto structure to wobble as they have a back line that can be got at by some direct play and quick combinations.
- Saint Louis City are 7th in MLS 2026 with 41 points from 25 matches, with a home record of seven wins, three draws and two defeats in 12 league games.
- Toronto FC are 24th with 29 points from as many matches, winning only two, drawing three and losing six on the road.
Salloi and Sargent can contribute
The odds suggest Saint Louis are the only way to go in this game with Toronto at 4.4 and the draw at 4.1, but that is probably about right given how much better STL are on paper. But Toronto's counter-attacking threat will keep this close if the hosts don't finish it off early.
Rafael Navarro is the main threat for Saint Louis City SC with 12 MLS 2026 goals in 25 appearances and the sort of box presence that can win tight games. Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 looks the best way to play it with the home side averaging 2.08 goals per game at home and 1.33 conceded while Toronto have conceded 18 in 11 on the road.
