- Form and history: Toronto FC are unbeaten in five (W2, D3). Nashville SC are on a current four-game winning streak. Toronto FC have been winless in their last three home games against Nashville in all current competitions.
Nashville are top dogs in Toronto
Odds and expectations
Nashville SC will be favorites at 2.28 to beat Toronto FC at BMO Field on Wednesday, so there is a little bit of value in going against the Reds, who are listed at 2.74 with the draw at 3.75.
Form and standings
The Boys in Gold have won their last two meetings with Toronto FC, including a 1-0 away win in MLS 2025 a year ago to the day. And their red-hot form, with four wins and one defeat from their last five, suggests they will be very tough to beat in Toronto.
League leaders Nashville have amassed 52 points from 22 games in MLS 2026, compared to 23rd-placed Toronto FC's return of 25 from the same number of matches, but the Reds have actually been in decent-to-good form of late with two wins and three draws in their last five.
Reds are resilient enough to keep it close
Recent results
Those two results were a 2-1 win away to Inter Miami CF and a 1-1 draw at home to New York City FC, so Nashville will have to work hard to get the job done on Wednesday.
- Toronto's overall home record this season is 3-7-2, so they have been tough to break down, but not ruthless enough to close teams out in Toronto.
- Nashville SC's two most recent results were a 3-2 home win over Columbus Crew and a 4-0 thumping of FC Cincinnati, but 23 goals in 12 home league games is a pretty average return and not the sort of output that suggests Toronto will walk away with the win.
Tactical outlook
Nashville's controlled-aggression system, which sees their full-backs provide width while a compact central block harries and presses, should suit them to take the game to Toronto in transitions, but the home team's resilience could keep this one close. B.J. Callaghan has done a fine job since July 2024, bringing structure, pressing and momentum to a team with some serious players in it.
Sam Surridge can make the difference
Sam Surridge, who has scored 13 goals in 16 MLS 2026 games, is Nashville's main weapon and the most dangerous forward in the division right now, while Daniel Salloi, who has six goals in 22 MLS 2026 games, remains Toronto's sharpest finisher.
Robin Fraser has overseen a similar evolution at Toronto since January 2025, but his switchable 4-3-3/3-4-3 system hasn't yet settled on a shape or rhythm for the hosts, although they can definitely nick a goal at some point in the match.
Therefore, a Nashville win looks likely, but the odds on offer are too short to get excited about. Instead, Nashville's average of 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded on the road makes the over 2.5 goals bet look the safer bet at around 1.57.
