- Odds: Atalanta are the slight favorites at 2.5, with Ajax at 2.65 and a draw at 3.7.
- Goals market: Over 2.5 match goals is priced up at 1.72 and BTTS – Yes is 1.6.
De Godenzonen have the edge
Match odds
It is tough to predict a winner in this matchup with the bookmakers having Atalanta Bergamo as the slight favourites ahead of Thursday's UEFA Conference League League Phase 2026-2027 game. AFC Ajax are only just behind La Dea in the odds at 2.65, whilst the draw is 3.7.
Recent form
De Godenzonen have mixed home form coming into this game, although their form record is not sparkling. In the Eredivisie, they drew 1-1 with NEC Nijmegen, whilst in the UEFA Conference League, they were beaten 2-1 by HNK Hajduk Split away from home.
That's 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 in all competitions, but Atalanta come into this one with 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats across their 10 most recent games. La Dea picked up a 3-1 win at home to SSC Venezia in Serie A at the weekend, before brushing past Pafos FC by the same scoreline at home in the Conference League on Thursday.
Atalanta have the quality to take the points
Tactics
There are two different coaching philosophies at work here with Michel trying to get his Ajax side to control the ball as much as possible whilst pressing the opposition high up the pitch when they do not have possession. When they win the ball back high, they like to play vertical football in 2 or 3 passes.
Maurizio Sarri is more of a structured coach. He wants his side to build up in a controlled way, they're not as explosive on the break, but they move the ball in a much cleaner way positionally, which could open up the half-spaces on the flanks if they can get past the Ajax press.
We think this game has goals written all over it, but the Italians are in the better rhythm, so we're siding with La Dea to nick it in what should be a lively European game.
- Ajax do have a mixed home record, but 12 goals conceded in 6 matches tells us all we need to know about the nature of the games they are playing at the Johan Cruijff ArenA.
- Atalanta are yet to draw away from home in all competitions, with 2 defeats in 2 trips, conceding 2.00 goals per game for a total of 4.
- In terms of goal-scorers, we're going for the in-form Nikola Krstovic to get on the scoresheet after scoring 2 of Atalanta's 5 goals across their last 5.
