- Team form: West Ham are unbeaten in their last five games (W2, D3), including a 2-2 draw at Burnley and a 3-1 EFL Cup victory over Portsmouth.
- Recent results: Southampton have won four of their last five matches, but they were beaten 2-1 in the Championship by Watford in their most recent outing.
- Odds: West Ham are 2.42 favourites for Tuesday's game ahead of Southampton at 2.68 and the draw at 3.55.
It’s close on paper, but Saints should have an edge
Match prediction
Southampton should edge this one if they get a bit lucky on Tuesday, but West Ham could nick it in a cup game. Both of these teams have strong records, but they approach the game very differently and that could make this a chess match instead of a shootout.
Tactical approaches
Tonda Eckert's players are set up to be the more patient, possession-based side, but they will have the ability to get at West Ham on the counter-attack when they do get the ball back. There is a back four and plenty of men behind the ball, but Southampton have more width and quality when transitioning from defence to attack.
Nuno Espirito Santo's West Ham are the opposite in that they will look to press at the right times, use their wide players to nick a goal and then get men behind the ball to stop the counter-attack. They are not quite as explosive as Southampton, but have been steadier across all competitions, winning three, drawing four and losing three of their last ten games.
Castellanos could be the difference
The Hammers are favourites at 2.42 and, although there is some logic to that, it looks a bit short to us given Southampton's home advantage. The Saints are unbeaten in two at St. Mary's Stadium, winning one and drawing the other, and are averaging 2.00 goals per game.
West Ham's record of one win, four draws and two defeats from seven on the road, across all competitions, looks like stubborn rather than convincing. Backing the Saints to win looks like the best option here, but there is some merit to over 2.5 goals at 1.7 and Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.57.
Saints’ cup record is better than Hammers’
Their overall form is better than West Ham's, however, with six wins, two draws and just two defeats in the last ten across all competitions.
- The last time these sides met was in the Premier League 2024/2025 season at London Stadium where they drew 1-1, and Southampton failed to win any of the last three (D1, L2).
- The 0-2 EFL Cup win at Colchester United in the previous round shows that the Southampton players can travel well and manage a game, but they have enough attacking quality to suggest they will win this one at home.
- Valentin Castellanos has been the danger man for West Ham in recent weeks with three of their six goals in the last five coming from his boots.
