- The last head-to-head game ended in a 1-1 draw in the Premier League in 2024/2025 at West Ham, with Saints winless across their last three meetings (L2, D1).
- Southampton have won four of their last five games, but lost 2-1 in the Championship at Watford last time out.
- West Ham are unbeaten across their last five matches (W2, D3), including an entertaining 2-2 draw with Burnley and a 3-1 win over Portsmouth in the EFL Cup.
Both sides have good momentum
This looks an evenly poised encounter on paper, with West Ham coming into Tuesday's game as slight favourites at around the 71/50 mark, compared to 42/25 for Saints and 51/20 for the draw.
West Ham have a much more steady but less explosive run in all competitions than Saints, posting three wins, four draws and three defeats across their last ten matches. Southampton have won six, drawn two and lost two of their 10.
Southampton are the more patient team
The Saints have been more patient under Tonda Eckert, who sets his side up with a back four and plays a possession-first game where they are always looking to play forward. They have organised counter-pressing and quick transitions to help them get numbers forward and make their mark.
Nuno Espirto Santo has set up his West Ham side in a more pragmatic way, using pressing triggers, wide runners and trying to pinch it when they get transition chances, rather than dominating the ball for long periods.
Valentin Castellanos has been the danger man in recent weeks, scoring three of West Ham's six goals in their unbeaten five-game run. However, Southampton will set up to keep him quiet in this game and look to punish any mistakes.
Expect a tight, high-tempo cup tie
A lot of things point towards a close game here, but the fact that the visitors are ahead in the betting and Southampton's home edge will point the game in Southampton's direction. Southampton's recent form is better across all competitions and they showed against Colchester United in the 0-2 EFL Cup win that they are able to travel well and manage games when necessary.
West Ham have been stubborn on the road in all competitions, posting one win, four draws and two defeats from seven, which looks beatable in this scenario.
There's a chance that this match could be a tactical battle more than a free-flowing shootout, but both sides have enough attacking quality to make this a thrilling encounter, so we're taking Over 2.5 goals and BTTS - Yes at 7/10 and 57/100, respectively.
