- Home form: AC Milan have not lost at home in Serie A 2026/2027 (2 wins from 2 matches played) and have scored 2.50 goals per game on average.
- Away form: Atalanta have not won in away games in Serie A 2026/2027 (2 defeats from 2) and have scored just 0.50 goals per-game while conceding 2.00.
- Head-to-head: Atalanta have won the last head-to-head (Serie A 2025/2026) 3-2 away to AC Milan and are unbeaten in the last 3 away games against AC Milan.
Sarri’s Atalanta look vulnerable
AC Milan are the clear favourites at 1.94 for Sunday's San Siro encounter with Atalanta, who are priced up at 3.65, with the draw coming in at 3.6. The Rossoneri can be tipped to edge a win in this contest but the odds for the draw are also attractive and may be worth a small stakes bet.
Ruben Amorim has brought a structured 3-at-the-back system to AC Milan that has seen the Rossoneri start Serie A 2026/2027 in fine fashion. They currently sit 4th in the table with 12 points from 6 matches, an excellent start that has kept them firmly in the title chase. Their 3-at-the-back system is well suited to the wing-backs that Amorim likes to deploy and Milan's high-press and immediate transitions have created chances, but they've been a little wasteful in their recent 5-game run (W1, D3, L1).
- Diego Moreira has been deadly in those 5 games though, scoring 3 of Milan's 6 goals to top the club's scoring charts for Serie A 2026/2027, while Gianluca Scamacca has provided 2 of Atalanta's 4 goals in their last 5 matches to make him La Dea's sharpest threat in the box.
- Ederson is the highest scorer for La Dea in Serie A 2026/2027 with 1 goal in 5 matches, and they'll need to be much more clinical in the final third if they're to cause Milan any trouble here.
- Both teams to score at 1.67 fits the game script for a more lively game, but over 2.5 goals at 1.8 looks to offer better value as Milan have scored 5 goals in their first 2 home games of the Serie A 2026/2027 campaign.
Rossoneri can pounce on an off-beat Atalanta
Form and tactics
Atalanta, who sit 11th in the Serie A 2026/2027 standings after taking 6 points from 5 games, are in danger of getting left behind by the chasing pack already. Maurizio Sarri has installed a patient 4-3-3 that revolves around possession, ball circulation and zonal defending at La Dea, but it doesn't look like an ideal fit with Atalanta's personnel.
In their last 5 games, across all competitions, Atalanta have won 2 and lost 3, a run which has seen them lose form rapidly. They were well beaten 2-1 at the Stadio Olimpico by AS Roma, while subsequent defeats at home to Cagliari (2-1) and away to Juventus (2-0) have seen Atalanta slide down the table.
Match outlook
Milan's trigger style should create problems for Atalanta's possession style and may open up the match at San Siro, but it also gives the home team the edge.
