- Plymouth Argyle are the form team going into this game with five matches unbeaten (Won 3, Drawn 2).
- Exeter City are the outsider on the road for this one, they have no wins in their last five away (Drawn 2, Lost 3).
- Aribim Pepple has three goals in his last five appearances for Plymouth, while Reece Cole has three in his last five for Exeter.
Pilgrims are primed for a Plymouth win
Plymouth Argyle are the clear 57/100 favourites to beat Exeter City at Home Park on Monday, but Exeter are 41/10 and the draw is priced at 16/5, so the odds are certainly stacked in the Pilgrims' favour. The draw is available at 16/5 and we are leaning towards a home win with both teams to score at the current odds of 67/100 because that market is a little on the short side.
The Devon derby is level with one win apiece and a draw in the last three meetings, but Plymouth have to take this match on the form sheet with five unbeaten in all competitions (Won 3, Drawn 2) against Exeter's five (Drew 4, Lost 1). Argyle have six wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 10, so they are on a roll, while Exeter's run of one win, five draws and four defeats tells its own story of grinding it out.
Tom Cleverley has Plymouth playing on the front foot, with high-tempo possession, rapid transitions and aggressive counter-pressing, while Matt Taylor has turned Exeter into a more pragmatic unit with structure first and a compact shape, organised set-piece play and controlled transitions. That should play into the home side's hands, but Exeter will be tough to break down if they get through the first wave of pressure.
Sides look evenly matched enough for a nervy derby
Plymouth's recent results show three wins, two draws and a loss in their last six at Home Park, so they have made their home tough to crack. The last Devon derby, which was only three months ago, finished 2-2 at this venue and Exeter will be good for a goal or two, but not enough to control a match they are not expected to win. Exeter have five goals in their last five on the road in all competitions, so they will be looking to nick a couple while the Pilgrims have nine in their last 6 at this ground. Aribim Pepple has been Plymouth's sharp edge with three goals in his last five and Lorent Tolaj their creative spark with three assists in the same five, while Exeter have Reece Cole as their main outlet and Ilmari Niskanen their main provider with the same three in their five-game sample. Plymouth's two most recent results were a 2-3 away win at Northampton and a 0-0 home draw with Bristol City in a friendly, so they are unbeaten in their last five with three wins and two draws. That's why we're backing a Plymouth win and both teams to score and not a routine home win.
