- Team market: Crewe Alexandra are the clear market choice for this game at 1.81 with Accrington Stanley 4.1 and the draw 3.7.
- Recent form: Crewe's recent form in all competitions is mixed to poor (W0, D2, L3) and Accrington's is poor (W0, D3, L2).
- Home scoring: Crewe have scored six times in their last six home games across all competitions.
A tough cup tie awaits at the Mornflake
Match context
The Alex are in a better place than Accrington right now, and they will be looking to make that tell at home where they have registered two wins, two ties and two defeats from six games to date. That doesn't make them a sure bet to see off John Doolan's Stanley side on Saturday, but they have enough in their locker to suggest they can do it.
Manager and tactics
Lee Bell has done a decent job since taking charge in November 2022 and his Crewe side will come out of the blocks at pace again on Saturday. They have always favoured an attack that transitions quickly from the back into the front with the fullbacks providing width, but Bell has got a bit more structure to them in recent weeks and they have looked more organised as a result.
Finishing concerns
Their problems lie in not finishing teams off and their results from the last two matches are proof of this. A 1-1 home tie with Stoke and a 2-1 defeat to Birmingham City are not bad results on paper, but they are a little disappointing when you consider the fact they were at home in both games.
Accrington are not yet out of the woods
John Doolan, however, has clearly got his Stanley side set up to be much more cautious.
Crewe's odds-on offer is too good to ignore on the back of Accrington's away form, leaving us with a slim home win as the smart read here. Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 also makes sense in a cup game, while Both Teams To Score – Yes at 1.73 looks good too.
- Recent away form may also play into the home team's hands as Accrington are without a win on the road after five games in all current competitions (D1, L4).
- A compact 4-2-3-1 system with a pragmatic mid-block and disciplined wide players should help to contain Crewe's threat and there should be enough in the Accrington set-up to control the chaos.
- They lack the ability to finish teams off at the other end, however, having scored just three times in their last five road games, and that could be their undoing.
