- Recent form: Plymouth are unbeaten in five (Won 3, Drawn 2) while Exeter are winless in five (Drawn 4, Lost 1).
- Home scoring: Plymouth have scored nine goals in their last six home games in all competitions.
- Away scoring: Exeter have scored five goals in their last five away games in all competitions.
Plymouth are the best bet to win
Plymouth Argyle FC come into Monday's EFL Cup 2026-2027 clash as the clear favorite at 1.57, while Exeter City FC are the long shots at 5.1 with the draw priced at 4.2. The Pilgrims' price is favorable here as their recent form is much the better of the two and they have much better recent home numbers than the Grecians have away, but an away goal could be on the cards in this West Country derby.
The last Devon derby at Home Park finished 2-2 three months ago and the recent H2H record is all tied up at a win apiece and a draw in the last three meetings. Plymouth have the better form heading into this clash as they have won three and drawn two of their last five games in all competitions, while Exeter have managed four draws and a defeat in their last five.
Plymouth's last two results have seen them come back at Northampton in League One to win 3-2 away from home and hold on to a 0-0 draw with Bristol City at Home Park in a friendly. Exeter have not won in their last two games, both at St James' Park, when they lost 1-2 at home to Bradford and drew 1-1 with Bristol City.
Plymouth have more of an edge
Tactics:
Tom Cleverley has Plymouth playing on the front foot, using the ball well at high tempo, transitioning quickly and counter-pressing with energy. Matt Taylor has made Exeter a more pragmatic side this season, as the set-piece organisation, structure-first approach and controlled transitions are all things the Grecians now do well.
Key players and recent form:
In all competitions, Plymouth are six wins, three draws and one defeat from their last 10, which is a very strong run that makes a lot of noise. Exeter have one win, five draws and four defeats from their last 10 in all competitions, which suggests they are grinding rather than swaggering.
- In Aribim Pepple, Plymouth have the sharp edge they have needed in recent seasons and he has scored three of their nine goals in the last five.
- Lorent Tolaj has been their creative spark in that same period, providing three assists.
- In Reece Cole, Exeter have their main finishing threat right now, as he has three of their eight in the same five games.
- Ilmari Niskanen has three assists in that same sequence of games, so he could be a threat from set pieces.
Grecians can get on the scoresheet
Plymouth should win this game as their overall recent form is better than Exeter's, their home numbers are better and they are the favorite here. But Exeter can score on their travels, as they have five goals in their last five on the road.
The style clash between the teams should see Plymouth come on strong in the first wave, but Exeter are compact and that should keep the matchup tight if they can ride the early storm. The Pilgrims have not been in the habit of blowing teams away this season, so this game looks like a live derby rather than a blowout.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is my main bet and both teams to score – yes, at 1.67 will be added to the main selection as a slightly higher odds alternative. Plymouth to win and both teams to score looks the best fit for this matchup in the odds and the stats.
