- Team form: AFC Wimbledon and Newport County FC are both out of sorts and in transition
- Home form: The Dons are winless in 5 home games this season (D1, L4)
Goals and tension the order of the day at The Cherry Red Records Stadium
With both AFC Wimbledon and Newport County FC going through transitions of one kind or another, the EFL Cup clash this weekend at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in England looks more like a tactical chess match than a game that can be backed with confidence in the straight game betting. Johnnie Jackson's hosts will have to improve on some poor recent form if they are to earn a second-round place in the EFL Cup 2026-2027, having won just one of their last five and suffered consecutive 0-0 home draws to Norwich City and 3-2 away defeat to QPR.
Newport's form is marginally better with three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five, but their 1-2 win at Barrow last time out was on the road.
Newport’s defensive game could lead to a chess match
Tactical setup and odds
Wimbledon, who are the odds-on favorite here at 1.67 with Newport at 4.65 and the draw at 3.9, will surely have more of the ball against a well-drilled Newport side. Chris Todd has got his players compact, protecting the penalty box and winning second balls while their pace on the counter has been effective.
Attacking structure and vulnerabilities
Johnnie Jackson's Dons like to use wing-backs in a flexible 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 system and they have the quality to create structure in their attacking play. Newport average 0.80 goals per away game and concede 1.40, so the Exiles can be got at if they are patient.
Both teams to score looks the best bet
The head-to-head record is tight but Newport have avoided defeat in the previous two games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, so there is no reason why they cannot avoid defeat here.
But Wimbledon have enough quality to grab a goal, so both teams to score at 1.73 looks the standout bet on this EFL Cup game.
- Bobby Kamwa has been Newport's main man of late with three goals in the Exiles' last 5 games and he is probably their best chance to score a goal at Wimbledon.
- Aron Sasu has been their spark plug recently with two of the Dons' four goals in the last 5 coming from his boot, but they have looked blunt at home, averaging just 0.20 goals per game across all competitions, scoring just once in total.
- Over 2.5 match goals at the same price is an option as well, but it will be a close game with the hosts looking to edge out Newport or keep it tight enough to take it to overtime.
