- Team form: Lincoln City arrive as 2025-26 League One champions and come into this game with momentum
- Head-to-head: Derby are all-time leaders in this head-to-head by 24 wins, 7 losses and 7 draws, winning three of the last five competitive meetings
- Recent meetings: In December 2023, Derby beat Lincoln 3-1 here, but the Imps kept it a 0-0 draw in a January 2024 return fixture
Lincoln likely to keep it close
Odds and expectations
Derby County are the clear 1.97 favorites to beat League One Lincoln City in the EFL Cup 2026-2027 at Pride Park on Saturday, with the Imps coming in at 3.4 and the draw at 3.75.
Form and tactics
The Rams finished in a healthy mid-to-upper-table groove in the Championship during the 2025-26 campaign and pre-season results indicate that John Eustace is keeping them sharp and structured.
They have beaten QPR and Alfreton Town in competitive and friendly action respectively, while losing only narrowly to Sheffield United, Norwich and SC Freiburg in all competitions. Eustace has Derby playing a compact, pragmatic game with a high press, vertical outlets and a transition-first style that suits the Cup competition well.
Imps have a chance to nick it
Team model
Lincoln's joint leadership team have managed to keep the title-winning blueprint for 2025-26 intact and the game model remains a compact block, measured build-up and sharp counterpunches.
Key players
Rob Street offers a lively central option, but George Wickens remains a key last line for a side built on organisation and control. Jack Moylan is the chief creator for the Imps and also a major goal threat from midfield, while Reeco Hackett provides pace and directness out wide. Derby's Carlton Morris is the headline striker and the penalty-box threat who can turn one good transition into a decisive smash-and-grab.
Under 2.5 goals the play
Backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 suits the likely tactical shape of this tie, where Lincoln can certainly make it sticky and both teams can sit back and make it a chess match.
Derby's higher-tempo press should see them create more chances than their visitors, but Eustace's men are perhaps a little more potent than the market indicates and it's easy to envisage the Rams nicking a narrow win.
But the styles and odds make this a Cup game more likely than a shootout, so Derby to win with Under 2.5 goals is the recommendation.
